ROCKWOOD SCHOOL BOARD ELECTION: A CLOSE ONE; VOTER TURNOUT MAY HAVE DECIDED THE RACE

Election result data indicates: 1,104 fewer voters went to the polls for Rockwood's School Board election on Tuesday, compared to the year before.

The race's vote totals were close enough among the 6 candidates that if those missing voters had voted for the losing candidates, two of the three who lost would have won. (Three seats were open.)

WHO WON
Kary Bachert, incumbent Lynne Midyett, and, Bob Cadigan were the winners, in that order.

All 6 candidates earned between 15% and 17% of the votes. That's close enough to change the election if the missing voters had voted for their opponents.

In that scenario, the winners would have been:
Trisha Katzfey, Kary Bachert, and Rich Wierzba, in that order.

Quick look at how the numbers would have changed:

Katzfey would have had 10,982.

Bachert had 10,585 votes.

Wierzba would have had 10,547.

ACTUAL RESULTS:

Bachert, Cadigan, and Midyett won.

As seen on the official website for the Rockwood School District.

COMPARED TO LAST YEAR
The characterization of the difference the missing voters may have made is only hypothetical, but has drawn attention because the vote was so close and will likely be a factor in plans for next year's election. 

POINT SPREAD
This year, there was a 2.34 point spread between the candidates with the highest and lowest votes.

In 2022, the spread was 23.16 points, roughly ten times more.

That spread in 2022 was between Izzy Imig and Charles Messmer. If you exclude Messmer, there was still a 5.72 point spread (more than double this year's spread) between Imig and the next lowest vote-getter after Messmer: Amy Ryan.

Last year, the candidates who were not endorsed by the RNEA won handily. This year, three candidates were again not endorsed by the RNEA, but this time they did not win. 

RNEA HUSH HUSH

One difference? Those who were endorsed by the RNEA did not advertise that they were RNEA endorsed. RNEA is Rockwood National Education Association; an affiliate of the NEA. The endorsement was not mentioned in their mailers or ads.

CONTENTIOUS

This year's race was contentious. Bachert's team claimed her opponents' supporters slandered her, but offered no specifics. A Cadigan Facebook post questioned the intelligence and integrity of his opponents and made a false claim about "GOP" donations given to his opponents. You can read more about that here.

It's worth noting that Cadigan posted his false allegation on social media two weeks after another candidate in another local race had to drop out due to similar allegations. The federal investigator determined the claim was false and Trisha Katzfey, the target of the inquiry, was cleared by investigators. But, she lost to Cadigan by 249 votes out of roughly 10,000.

OVERALL VOTER TURNOUT STATS

117,732 ballots were counted in all of St. Louis County, for 18.1% turnout. Last year, it was roughly a point higher, at 19.09%. Both are up from 2021, which was only 14.7%.

In Jefferson County this year, voter turnout was 12.1% overall, down from 17.8% the year before. 

NOTE: Not all voters in either county have Rockwood's school board election on their ballot.

METHODOLOGY
How we came up with the number of voters missing:

The total votes for school board candidates, combined, in St. Louis County and Jefferson County this election, were 59,583.

Assuming every voter voted for three candidates, the total votes divided by 3 is 19,861 voters. (We can't see ballots to know for sure whether every voter voted for 3.)

In 2022, the total votes from both counties, for school board, was 41,931. 

Assuming every voter voted for two candidates (there were two open seats), the total votes divided by 2 is 20,965 voters.

1,104 is the difference between the two totals.

Broken down another way, Jefferson County had 177 fewer voters in this school board election in 2023.
St. Louis County had 927 fewer. Total fewer = 1,104 fewer voters.

MICROSCOPE ON THE WAY THE BOARD OPERATES

After winning an election that was so close, the newly elected board members will be under additional scrutiny. 

Likely, even more so, after what Rockwood emails and documents revealed: for years, the board has been approving money to be spent on work that did not follow district purchasing procedures and was not appropriately authorized by the purchasing department. Recently re-elected Lynne Midyett was among board members who voted yes every time.

The records were obtained through a Sunshine law request. You can read the details, here.